The application of models of panel data analysis - Статья

The application of models of panel data analysis for the estimation of the volume of innovative goods, works and services in the Russian Federation M. M. Tsvil V. E. Shumilina In recent years, in terms of sanctions policy from Western countries more and more attention in the Russian Federation (RF) is paid to the creation and sale of innovative goods and to the provision of innovative works and services. As is known, innovations are the central factor of production and productivity growth. The emergence of innovations is directly connected with the development of science. Science provides the economy and society with highly qualified personnel, revolutionary technological solutions and new technical ideas for everyday practical usage. econometric analysis panel innovative However, according to the report of the Russian Association of the science promotion (RASP) about the state of science in the Russian Federation, presented in 2013, the current state of the Russian science according to a number of objective indicators is characterized as catastrophic. One of the main reasons named was the organizational reason, i.e. the lack of a distinct state strategy in scientific and technical sphere. The problems of a lower level are arisen from this main problem, e.g. the rapid delay of Russia in the global field of scientific researches, the problem of reproduction of qualified scientific and engineering personnel, the problem of introducing of scientific and technical innovations into the production and their incorporation into the chain of sectoral and intersectoral economic connections (bringing to the final product and to the final consumer); hence the problem of low share of small and medium enterprises in the structure of high-tech production and low share of industries with high added value in the GDP structure. Consequently, there is no large-scale demand for scientific developments by private companies and that factor exacerbates all the above-described problems and leads to the development of negative tendencies in self-reinforcing spirals. At the St. Petersburg international economic forum on June 16-18, 2016 at the session «Big challenges - the stimulus of science development» the participants of which were the leading scientists and organizers of domestic and foreign science, the Chairman of the Board of the managing company «RUSNANO» A. Chubais mentioned that «Science itself has not been demanded by the production, science disturbs production as it requires big changes from any production». In his opinion, innovative economy should become the connecting link between science and production: «We need not expect that the production will create a request for science. It is needed to consider the chain of three elements: science - innovation economy - production. The demand for science from the side of manufacturers can be provided by innovative economy». At that session, the member of the Expert Council under the Government of Russian Federation, Ekaterina Shapochka, pointed out the large data amount in the modern world, which is difficult to process by means of traditional ways; the Chairman of one of the world’s largest scientific publishers, Elsevier B. V., Ionsuk Chi, noted that the value of data was increasing when they were structured, and even more - when analyzed. The actuality of this topic determined the purpose of the investigation described in the given article. The object of study is the volume of innovative goods, works and services in the Russian Federation (RF) from 2010 to 2014 (The data of Federal Statistics Service[1]). The objective of the investigation is to build adequate and substantial models to examine the true cause-effect relations between the volume of innovative goods, works, services in Russia ( ) in million rubles, and the explanatory variables: - number of employees involved in scientific research and development (person); - internal costs on scientific investigation and development of the Russian Federation in million rubles; - used advanced manufacturing technologies (units); - coefficient of inventive activity (number of domestic patent applications for inventions submitted in Russia per 10 thousand persons of population); - innovative activity of organizations (specific gravity of organizations in % carrying out technological, organizational and marketing innovations in the reporting year, in the total number of the surveyed organizations) in eight Federal districts. The experience of the econometric methods is of great interest in terms of uncertainty. Econometrics has become a powerful tool of economic research, especially in recent years as a result of the development of computer systems and special applied programs. The constantly complicated social and economic processes have led to the necessity of econometric analysis usage. The study of these processes is carried out by means of econometric models. The majority of new research methods are based on the econometric