Simulating and predicting global climatic anomalies such as El Nino and La Nina - Статья

Simulating and predicting global climatic anomalies such as El Nino and La Nina Lutsenko Evgeny Veniaminovich The paper discusses the modeling and prediction of the climate of our planet with the use of artificial intelligence AIDOS-X. We have developed a number of semantic information models, demonstrating the presence of the elements of similarity between the motion of the lunar orbit and the displacement of the instantaneous pole of the Earth. It was found that the movement of the poles of the Earth leading to the variations in the magnetic field, seismic events, as well as violations of the global atmospheric circulation and water, and particular to the emergence of episodes such as El Nino and La Nina. Through semantic information models studied some equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean, as well as spatial patterns of temperate latitudes, revealed their relative importance for the prediction of global climatic disturbances in the tropical and temperate latitudes. The reasons of occurrence of El Nino Modoki and their relationship with the movement of elements of the lunar orbit in the long-term cycles are established. Earlier, we had made a forecast of the occurrence of El Nino episode in 2015. Based on the analysis of semantic models concluded that the expected El Nino classical type. On the basis of the prediction block AIDOS-X calculated monthly evolution scenario of global climate anomalies. In this paper, the analysis of the actual implementation forecast of El Nino since its publication in January 2015 - before June 2015. It is shown that the predicted scenario of climatic anomalies actually realized. Calculations of future climate scenarios with system «Aidos-X» recognition module indicate that further possible abnormal excess temperature indicators of surface ocean waters in regions Nino 1,2 and Nino3,4 for 2015 may be comparable with similar abnormalities in the catastrophic El Nino of 1997-1998. Keywords: SEMANTIC INFORMATION MODEL, COMPUTATIONAL EXPERIMENT, EL NINO, EL NINO MODOKI, POLAR MOTION Introduction As we know, in the solar system, there are common causes and mechanisms of motion of celestial bodies, affecting, in turn, on the motion of the poles of the Earth, seismic activity, magnetic field variations and social-economic processes [1-24]. As was shown in our previous studies [1-18], astronomical parameters of celestial bodies can be used to create semantic data models in order to predict the effects of the space environment factors on the noosphere, the magnetosphere and the Earths lithosphere. The aim of this work is the development of semantic information models based on artificial intelligence systems «AIDOS-X», allowing to identify the correlation between the dynamics of the poles and the global climate shifts, emerging during periods of El Nino - La Nina [25-37], investigate the cause and effect relationship and the dependence of their origin from the influence of external to the Earth cosmic factors. Identification of such mechanisms will contribute to improved understanding and prediction of global climatic disasters. Formulating and solving problems The scientific study of the El Nino underway for about 150 years, but historical records and legends of Native Americans suggest the existence of this natural phenomenon for at least 500 years old, and the excavations of archaeologists suggest the existence of already three thousand years BC [25-27]. The researchers [29-37] isolated oceanic component (El Nino), atmospheric constituents (southern oscillation or SOI), and the complete cycle of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). As we know, the warm phase of the El Nino often moves in the opposite cold phase - La Nina, and then replaced by a neutral phase. All together it forms a series of the most important manifestations of global climate change on the planet. The classic El Nino - La Nina have a characteristic dynamics in violation of coherent and harmonized system of circulation in the tropical Pacific. Despite the fact that the basic processes occur in the tropics, catastrophic cycles apply to temperate latitudes, not only in the Pacific but also lead to climate change on the planet. Normally, the macro-circulation processes, including in the Pacific, are relatively stationary system in the equatorial zone to form a powerful convective cells Hadley to 30 ° north and south of the equator [33, 38-39]. Solar radiation near the equator causes the maximum heating water and air due to evaporation and condensation of vapour above the dew point in the clouds, a large amount of heat due to reinforcing existing inter-latitudinal temperature difference circulation processes in the Hadley cells [39]. In the rotating coordinate system of the Coriolis force, which is absent on the equator, rejects high circulating air flow (jet air currents) in the northern hemisphere to the right and to the south - to the left, accelerated the Earths rotation. Dipped in both hemispheres the cooling air