Key definitions - Реферат

Contents Introduction The main purpose and aims of the graduation paper Actuality of the graduation paper The research methods used in the graduation paper The structure of the graduation paper Key definitions and concepts in the graduation paper Simulation modeling Expert forecasting Cognitive modeling Decision tables Conclusion References Introduction As Thomas L. Saaty once said, all people are fundamentally decision makers and everything we do consciously or unconsciously is the result of a decision. (T.L. Saaty, 2008) It is very important to note that not all the gathered information is useful for improving our understanding and judgments. If decisions are only made intuitively, one is inclined to believe that all kinds of information are helpful and the larger the quantity, the better. However, that is not true. It is believed that to make a decision one needs to know the problem, the need and purpose of the decision, stakeholders and groups affected, and the alternative actions. Today, decision-making theory has become a science. It is helpful as a means of making the process of decision-making more transparent in all its aspects. Naturally, numerous approaches have been proposed in order to achieve this goal. The subject of the present paper, particularly, is a number of approaches to modeling the problem situations that occur in the process of decision-making. It is widely recognized that the modeling of the alternative problem situations significantly increases the effectiveness of the decisions made, which makes the subject of the present study an interesting and topical issue. The main purpose and aims of the graduation paper The purpose of the graduation paper is the review and the analysis of the various approaches to modeling the problem situations of decision-making, as well as the key concepts and definitions related to these approaches. Particularly, the subject of the study includes several approaches: · Simulation modeling · Expert forecasting · Cognitive modeling · Decision tables The aims of the graduation paper are as following: · The definition of the characteristics and features of the approaches; · The analysis of the necessity of the approaches; · The comparative characteristics of the approaches; · Advantages and disadvantages of the approaches; · The examples of the implementation of the approaches. The result of the study is expected to be a thorough and complete analysis of the chosen approaches. Actuality of the graduation paper The subject of the paper is the modeling of the problem situations of decision-making. When a decision is made, the person making it should take into consideration the connection of the problem on which he focuses with other problematic areas. Only modeling the alternative problem situations one can increase the effectiveness of the decisions. The problem should be identified, as well as the necessity and content of its solvation, the criteria of the decision-making, the interested party, and the alternative actions. It is of a strong necessity to be aware of the various approaches to modeling the problem situations of decision-making, in order to make the decision that is the most effective. The research methods used in the graduation paper In order to conduct the thorough analysis of the approaches to modeling the problem situations of decision-making, it is necessary to study a variety of publications devoted to this subject. The topic is acute and popular; therefore, there are many articles and research publications. Furthermore, the study of the specific literature allows conducting an explicit analysis of the chosen approaches to modeling the problem situations, which is the main purpose of the graduation paper. The structure of the graduation paper The preliminary structure of the graduation paper is as following: 1. Introduction 1.1. Actuality 1.2. Main purpose and aims 1.3. Key definitions 1.4. Choice of approaches to modeling 1.5. Presentation of the structure 2. Simulation modeling 2.1. General information 2.2. Origin 2.3. Characteristics and features 2.4. Conditions of use 2.5. Examples 3. Expert forecast 3.1. General information 3.2. Origin 3.3. Characteristics and features 3.4. Conditions of use 3.5. Examples 4. Cognitive modeling 4.1. General information 4.2. Origin 4.3. Characteristics and features 4.4. Conditions of use 4.5. Examples 5. Function model based on decision tables 5.1. General information 5.2. Origin 5.3. Characteristics and features 5.4. Conditions of use 5.5. Examples 6. Conclusion 6.1. Generalization of the conducted research 6.2. The results of the research 6.3. Final results and conclusions 7. References Key definitions and concepts in the graduation paper A decision is a choice or judgment that you make after a period of discussion or thought.